$ZIP is undervalued and going up with earnings next week (maybe) via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing

The Great Resignation.

That is the name of the movement we currently find ourselves in. A record number of Americans are leaving their jobs in search of a better future and greedy gambler/capitalists like myself are trying to find a way to profit off of this trend.

ENTER $ZIP – Q4 AND FULL YEAR 2021 EARNINGS MARCH 1

ZipRecruiter. We’ve all heard of it. We may not all use it but I can guarantee you’ve seen at least one advertisement for ZIP in the past few months. Whether it’s on YouTube, JRE, sporting events, etc – ZIP is there.

And it’s growing. Festering in the shadows. Feeding and making money off of us degenerates who are unhappy with our lives and jobs and pointing us towards higher salaries and better benefits.

But OP, Indeed and LinkedIn are better alternatives to online job searching – why should I invest in ZIP?

It’s actually pretty simple, friend. I have bags I want to unload on you. They’re getting heavy.

I’m kidding. But not really. But in all seriousness, there’s some very attractive things to consider regarding ZIP, especially at the current stock price.

I’m about to speculate hard mostly because I’m a meme guy and making informed financial posts/decisions isn’t my bag baby. All I do is lose money but if you are interested in actual DD – check out u/moonshot_xyz’s original post on ZIP here 🙁https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/rvnvdu/zip_set_up_for_a_massive_run_in_2022/). He is way smarter than I am.

What is arguably the most important metric that the Street wants to see from tech companies? REVENUE GROWTH. Look at this beautiful growth since COVID.

https://preview.redd.it/9xo8q970n6k81.png?width=1636&format=png&auto=webp&s=04e0107217aa6ded653768a3973b430b8922a136

Steady increases each quarter since Q2’20. They’ve beaten estimates the past 3 quarters and if Q4 is the same, they should blow past their guidance of $209M. This will put ZIP’s full year revenue in the $730M range. Over 75% increase from 2020.

Year over year revenue growth is good, right?

What about expenses? As I mentioned before, ZIP is spending a pretty penny on advertising.

Q3 2021

Q3 2021 showed total expenses almost tripled YoY from Q3 2020. Most of this is from increased sales/ marketing expenses which makes sense because their advertisements are everywhere these days. To me, this increase is a good thing indicating growth and expansion but I’m as smooth brained as they come so you are free to make your own call on that.

ZIP announced a private $500M Senior Note offering on Jan 5, 2022. Two days later they announced that they increased it to $550M due to “market interest”. Interesting. This will substantially improve their balance sheet and help offset the increasing sales/marketing expenses.

My head hurts from all that analysis so here comes some speculation – institutional positions:

https://preview.redd.it/n106m5g5n6k81.png?width=2718&format=png&auto=webp&s=2312320474d2b23b47e1d47a21e04b7115eafb2c

https://preview.redd.it/8jch6817n6k81.png?width=2748&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a4699aef5f34fa7435c1db13865f572052dfdd0

https://preview.redd.it/5ffivij8n6k81.png?width=2730&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e802bb691334d0475c3ae4125f930d5520dae2b

Vanguard with 4.2M shares

Our favorite market makers at Susquehanna and Citadel seem to have bullish call/put spreads.

I’ve discovered the hard way that institutional positions mean jack shit when it comes to stock price BUT….looking at those screenshots, it seems as though all the big dogs are in at higher prices than it’s currently trading at. The stock is also close to its all time low so that means none of them are in the green right now. Bullish?

Another thing to consider is the macroenvironment. You’re all aware of what is happening in the market and a lot of companies are selling off hard. ZIP has not been immune to this. Here is ZIP’s daily chart:

For reference, the large volume bar in November was 4.9M shares

Not great.

HOWEVER, looking at the volume for 2022, this does not indicate any massive selling. Yes, the stock price has decreased but the chart does not show any serious volume on the big red days. The current 10 day average volume is 423k shares. Looks as though the hodlers are still hodling.

Another noteworthy event was that they recently won a bunch of awards for their software. It was rated the #1 search app for job seekers and #1 employment marketplace based on G2 satisfaction ratings. Their billions of data points allow them to connect qualified applicants with employers in record time. Maybe this isn’t a relevant point to bring up but to me it indicates that people enjoy using it. Or at least “don’t hate” using it.

https://preview.redd.it/qm5ulr0jn6k81.png?width=1620&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c52368f7a95c74ac0a6820ba98ea359b019fd5e

HEY OP THAT WASN’T ENOUGH SPECULATION. CAN YOU SPECULATE MORE?

I can speculate all day long bro.

Have you guys been on r/antiwork lately? If you’ve spent 5 mins on that sub then you know how many people are just bouncing around jobs. Who profits from people who bounce around jobs? ZIP.

It’s important to understand how ZIP’s business model works. They make $$ off of every hire. So in the situations where people accept jobs, do them for a little while, then quit/get fired and look for something new again, the real winners are the recruiters. The ZIPRECRUITERS.

I understand that’s a relatively rare situation but it does speak to the mood of this Great Resignation movement. People hate their jobs and some are looking to simply play the system until they get fired. They don’t care. It’s been increasingly apparent in observing that sub that employees have figured out companies don’t care about them, so they have decided to fight fire with fire.

There’s an opportunity in this employee vs employer battle and I believe ZIP is the ticket to the promised (tendie) land.

ZIP current market cap: $2.3B

Total market of online recruiting sites: $13B

Total U.S. employment agency, staffing, and temp market: $205B

There’s money and market share to be gained here….maybe

I am long ZipRecruiter. Therefore, it should theoretically decrease. It may even go out of business.

Also, war.

I’m not going to bother giving you a real bear case cause it’ll just make me less psyched about this and I need a win big time. Figure it out yourself.

Once again, I highly recommend checking out u/moonshot_xyz’s original post in the link above. My post here has basically zero financial DD but u/moontshot_xyz made a great case.

And also I need to make one more thing very clear:

IF YOU TOOK THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF MY TRADES THE PAST YEAR YOU WOULD BE RICH

That’s not being dramatic its just the truth. You can check my loss porn. I’m bad at this.

Goodluck u bastards

POSITIONS

https://preview.redd.it/yredd0cpn6k81.jpg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=00176b1c58818c78c69071c121819ec48726188a

ZIP Corporate Presentation

Q3 Results

Submitted February 26, 2022 at 03:21PM by SwitchbladeNClark
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