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Whisky Thoughts – The Worst Case Scenario

My whiskey fueled thought tonight is this – the human race is terrible at understanding the likelihood that the worst case scenario will happen even when presented with near certain evidence that it will. A little over two years ago, no one in the USA thought the we were on the verge of a 2 year pandemic despite overwhelming evidence in China that pointed to the contrary. A month ago, Ukrainians were in denial about a possible Russian attack on their border despite all evidence pointing to Russia planning an imminent invasion. US intel got both of these situations right, but everyone else laughed at their predictions. Our president thought it was crazy and refused to take steps to better handle the pandemic. Ukrainians chose to live in denial wasting precious time preparing for an imminent Russian invasion.

This is a pattern that has happened throughout history. During WWII, European towns that were under direct threat of Nazi attack, mostly lived in denial, and because of this few of them left before the Nazi’s came. The ones that did leave were able to see past their denial. They could separate their emotions and fears from the situation, and rationally come to an understanding of what was about to happen.

In 2008, many refused to believe the housing market would collapse despite a lot of evidence that it would, a few guys figured it out and now they have enough tendies for life. These predictions are all seen as brilliant prognostications, but really these folks were just willing to accept that the worst could happen. They were willing to live outside of their subconscious denial that clouds everyone’s judgment during challenging times.

So when faced with overwhelming evidence that the worst case scenario might happen, don’t ignore it. Don’t think you are silly or misinformed. Trust the evidence and ignore folks that are telling you that you are crazy. That instinct may save your life, your country, and/or make you all the tendies.

Submitted February 25, 2022 at 07:59AM by UD88
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