tl;dr I’m going to be posting morning news highlights daily so that people here can have better informed discussions. The news starts after this paragraph. After the break I explain what this is/why I’m doing it/why you might want to pay attention.
- Things You Should Watch (Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research)
- 10 Things You Shouldn’t Miss This AM (Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research)
- Events Today (Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research)
- Morning Summary (Morgan Stanley Research)
- Regions (North America, etc…)
Things You Should Watch:
- Authorities in the Chinese city of Shanghai have denied rumours of a city-wide lockdown after a sixth straight increase in daily asymptomatic coronavirus cases pushed its count to record levels despite a campaign of mass testing aimed at stifling the spread. RTRS
- Russia warned that up to 1M BPD of oil would be cut from a key pipeline sending product to global markets for up to two months as repairs were made. FT
- The French govt says there is no ceasefire agreement in sight between Russia and Ukraine after Macron spoke to the leaders of both countries. CNN
- Putin is coming under criticism inside Russia as dissent rises following his catastrophic assault on Ukraine (there are reports of “fissures” within the Russian leadership). NYT
- Oligarch companies want to pay their debts. But sanctions stand in the way. Steel giant Severstal could become the first major default since Russia invaded Ukraine and the West unleashed punishing sanctions, according to a person familiar with the matter. WSJ
- The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas warned that a cutoff of Russian energy could cause a global recession. A downturn appears “unavoidable” if the bulk of Russian oil-and-gas products are off the world markets for the rest of the year, according to a report by the regional Fed bank. WSJ
- The Ukrainian army blocked Russian attempts to advance on all fronts in the past day, its General Staff said. President Zelenskiy will take part via video in tomorrow’s NATO summit to be attended by Joe Biden. The government said about 100,000 people remain under bombardment in Mariupol as civilian evacuations continued. BBG
- The EU crackdown on Big Tech may be broader than expected. The bloc may unveil legislation tomorrow to curb the market power of companies that are worth at least 75 billion euros, run at least one core platform like a social network and have at least 45,000 active users, the FT said. Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple and Microsoft meet the standards, but Booking.com and Alibaba may also qualify. BBG
- Fed’s Mester anticipates “some” 50bp hikes this year (Mester becomes the latest Fed official to signal the potential for one or many 50bp moves this year); Fed may be about to follow its 1994 playbook whereby it tightened very aggressively in a short period of time but avoided a recession. RTRS
- SPX futures liquidity remains weak – even for comparable volatility environments…
- T-Mobile Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $155
ECONOMIC DATA (All times ET):
- 7am: March MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -1.2%
- 10am: Feb. New Home Sales MoM, est. 1.1%, prior -4.5%
- 10am: Feb. New Home Sales, est. 810,000, prior 801,000
CENTRAL BANKS (All times ET):
- 8am: Powell Takes Part in Bank for International Settlements Panel on Innovation
- 11:45am: Fed’s Daly Takes Part in Bloomberg Event
- 3pm: Fed’s Bullard Discusses the Economic Outlook
- 9:05pm: Fed’s Bullard Discusses the Economic Outlook
Global Macro Strategy: G10 FX Chart Pack
Top charts we are watching for each G10 currency with economic indicators, flows, positioning, and drivers. We stay neutral USD and EUR amid geopolitical and inflation uncertainty, but think relative value trades like short GBP/NOK and short NZD/CAD remain attractive
USD View: Neutral | Skew: Neutral; Mixed forces suggest USD neutrality amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty, rising global rates,…
Mexico: Mexico 4Q21 GDP: Exports and Consumption to the Rescue
Mexico’s 4Q21 GDP report shows the economy barely avoiding a technical recession in 2H21. GDP growth was 0% q-o-q (in line with preliminary GDP reports) and 1.1% y-o-y. In 2021, the economy partially recovered (+4.8%) from 2020 loses (-8.2%). The report came in line with our growth profile in Mexico for upcoming quarters, growth drivers in 4Q21 were exports (+3.5% q-o-q; +4.5% y-o-y) and privat…
Podcast: Strong Views on Global Macro | Ep. 76The outlook for global currencies has gotten more uncertain. Matt talks with David Adams, Head of G10 FX Strategy, about the opportunities in G10 FX related to central bank policies, the most important factors for FX investors to monitor, and what is going on in the pricing of Fed policy into 2024.
European Interest Rate Strategist: 2022 Outlook for European and UK Rates – March update
As we do on a monthly basis, here is an update on Euro and the UK rates. The document covers the outlook for rates, curves, spreads and the valuation inputs from our models.
Global Macro, Economics, Credit, MBS, Munis, Banks, CRE, Equities, and Cross-Asset Strategy: Living With Yield Curve Inversion
An inverted US yield curve is coming, but without a US recession close behind. The Fed, the US economy, the US banking system, and investors can live with an inverted term structure. We discuss investment implications for rates, munis, credit, agency MBS, CRE, US equities, and global risk assets.
Cross-Asset Spotlight: Signals, Flows & Correlations
A snapshot of our key cross-asset signals.
Submitted March 23, 2022 at 05:58PM by silversnoopy
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