Week 6 Earnings Plays Analysis and Historical Post Earnings Moves Compilation – $NVDA, $ROKU, $PLTR, $RBLX, $UPST, $DASH, $ABNB, and More via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing


Week 6 Earnings Plays Analysis and Historical Post Earnings Moves Compilation – $NVDA, $ROKU, $PLTR, $RBLX, $UPST, $DASH, $ABNB, and More

Week 6 Earnings Plays Analysis and Historical Post Earnings Moves Compilation – $NVDA, $ROKU, $PLTR, $RBLX, $UPST, $DASH, $ABNB, and More

 

Hey Bull Gang, hope you all banked last week! Both $CHGG and $CLF played out as expected, allowing us to profit handsomely. Volatility remains elevated this week due to the looming fed meeting combined with Russia’s potential invasion, meaning we’ll need to be quick on our toes whenever we decide to make a trade. Don’t get caught offside and don’t get greedy! There will be weeks which allow us to make safer money. Let’s get into it.

 


To aid us in planning our trades this week, I’ve compiled a spreadsheet consisting of all of the Historical Post Earnings Moves of EVERY stock reporting earnings this week. Using this spreadsheet, we can determine which options to buy or sell to minimize risk and maximize probability for ANY given ticker. Obviously, past performance isn’t indicative of future success, but we can still use these numbers to gain a general idea of the expected earnings move of a given stock. Gone are the days of getting randomly blown out due to lack of information! If you’re struggling to find a given stock, click on the ticker symbol on the index page, it should hyperlink you straight to the table! If the above link isn’t working for you, refer to this link instead!

 


Below I’ve compiled some interesting observations which can further aid us in making trades this week, alongside some sample plays for those who are new to playing earnings and need some guidance. If I missed anything, feel free to bring it to my attention!

 

  • $SHOP has made a positive move post earnings around 70% of the time. Across the past 26 quarters, Shopify has gone green in 18 of them. I’m not saying that a beat is guaranteed or that profit is inevitable, but the odds are in your favor if you go long. The best way to play this would be to sell an ATM bullish credit spread, as that would net you the greatest return most consistently in this case. If you run binary long calls, you’d need a large move to break even and make profits, while with a bullish credit spread, you would just need ANY green move to realize max gains. If you plan on running this play, keep in mind that past performances aren’t indicative of future results.

 

  • $FVRR is extremely mispriced. At the time of writing, $FVRR has an implied move of 18%, yet historically $FVRR only moves 8.5% post earnings. To make matters even more favorable, $FVRR has only moved more than 18% once since it’s inception, meaning this trade is extremely safe. We can sell straddles or strangles on $FVRR to capture some amazing premiums, and capitalize on the IV crush that will occur the following day. Those afraid of the theoretical infinite loss can look to sell iron condors or credit spreads instead. For more information on pricing inefficiencies, check out this article.

 

  • This week has every reason to be volatile. We’ve got Consumer Inflation Expectations alongside an Emergency Fed Meeting on Monday, PPI and API Crude Oil Stock Change on Tuesday, Retail Sales, Bond Auction, FOMC Minutes, and a potential invasion of Ukraine on Wednesday, and a boatload of Fed members speaking Thursday and Friday. This is not a week to play the hero, nor is it a week to play with large position sizes. Preserve your capital at all costs.

 


Stay safe out there everyone – Volatility is high this week, and for good reason! That being said, use the spreadsheet to determine which stocks offer the best risk to reward ratio, and play accordingly! If the sheet has helped you out in any way, please consider dropping an upvote or a comment, it would mean a lot to me! If you want access to more trading tools, have any specific questions or observations you’d like to share with the community, feel free to check out the community links in the spreadsheet. Happy Trading!

Submitted February 15, 2022 at 12:17AM by UniqueCod69
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