$SPY – Predictions for the week of 2/21 via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing


$SPY – Predictions for the week of 2/21

The Technicals

1 Day Chart

1 Day Chart

$SPY Support ~430

$QQQ Support ~350, ~320

This week I would like to bring some more attention to the tech sector in the market. These more speculative stocks have been hit hard in this selloff, something key to look for is: the 50 day moving average crossing the 200 day moving average. When this happens it is known as the “death cross” many funds will not even invest in stocks where the 50 day moving average is below the 200 because historically: “death crosses” are followed by a long term bear market. The RSI is approaching 0 so if there is a panic selloff in the beginning of the week I will buy $UPRO and catch a bounce for a quick profit.

30 Minute Chart

1 Hour Chart

Yield Curve

Surprisingly bonds have traded flat this week. I would argue this is a bearish sign for the economy since the yields are holding this level and it is historically high compared to the past year.

1 Day Chart

The equity market liquidity is how easily a security can be bought/sold in the markets. This means the bid/ask spread is increasing and transactions will have a greater effect on the stocks price. This is an extremely bad sign for the overall market.

Futures Market Times

Predictions

This week will be very volatile again especially with the rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine. I am a lot more uncertain this week in the markets since there is so many indicators to analyze. This may be a good thing though because more uncertainty in the markets can cause huge panic sells which creates opportunities. The support level on $SPY at ~430 is very weak and could be easily broken on with strong selling pressure on Tuesday. Then the price will most likely fall down to ~415. What most technical traders and intuitions will be watching is the futures on Monday, for those who do not know yet: all US markets will be closed on Monday for presidents day. The futures market will open at 6pm EST on Sunday.

I closed my $UVXY position on Friday about 1pm EST for a 20% gain. I did this because of the uncertainty with Russia and the markets being closed on Monday. This week I will be looking for a panic selloff in the overall markets by checking the RSI. Catching a bounce should not be too hard… I don’t want to speak too soon though.

It will definitely be another red week for $SPY but I just did not have enough confidence to hold my position over the weekend. Remember “Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.” I won’t be opening any positions on Tuesday when the markets open, just waiting for the perfect opportunity to make a trade.

TLDR

Uncertainty in the markets, could see big 🌈🐻 moves followed with a bounce from ~415

I will respond to every comment!

Submitted February 19, 2022 at 07:01PM by 5k4_5k4
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