SPY- 1/26 lets talk about it (reposted with edit per mod) via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing


SPY- 1/26 lets talk about it (reposted with edit per mod)

Note- my posts maybe on the later sides some day cause I’m off work with covid and home with the family till i go back to work. I may head back to work finally monday. If i do i may not always post every night if i am too busy before work. I work night shift so sometime during the night though i will post. Just know once i get back to work full time i wont post as much unfortunately.

Anyways lets get into it!

To me today was a confirmation day. I fully expected after market and futures wise that we woulda started the day down 1-2% not up 1.5% i believe it was. Nonetheless today was a very telling day in my opinion. What we saw today was a retest of the upper limit of this downward bearish channel we have been trading in since January 3rd. Look at the green dotted channel on the 30 minute. It has developed some very strong resistance now with from January 3rd to present being touched and officially rejected 4 times and 2 other times where it nearly touched the line. Thats a very stout resistance line that if we ever break it should provide some very heavy upward movement. https://i.imgur.com/bBk4yhZ.jpeg https://i.imgur.com/8iDmj1m.jpeg

What i watched develop this morning intraday (always watching the 30 min) was the MACD turning from buy to sell AND most importantly as we neared the top of the channel at the time of 441.5 was that the RSI was around 63. To me that showed that this did not have the momentum to break through. When we rejected the 441.5 twice i bought some 2/4 440P and 339p and one 1/28 440p… all three played very heavily. I got greedy and missed some gains though when we broke 430 for a second but recovered to 433 before market close. I was looking for the bottom drop and never got it. Left some on the table but still paid out >50% for all 3. Not bad at all.

Things im watching for tomorrow is Apple crushing earnings and being up 5% after hours. Now apple can NOT hold the market up on its own as much as people like to think it can. However oddly enough once apple released cry*pto pulled outta its nose dive and spy went from red to green. However, take tesla for instance today… tesla was down 5% while spy was up nearly 2% and tesla finished down 11%. Even the otherday on Tuesday Microsoft was up while the market was down if i remember correctly (or inverse). Either way what im saying is one company will not hold the market up. Though apple is the first big top 10 to release a stellar earnings so some sentiment may change… just keep in mind after and pre market are easily skewed by retail… tesla today was up right until the market open then we saw the true hedgefund take… (side note i bet tesla starts its decline down to 500-600 now… tesla today once again broke 25% correction from highs… the market FINALLY sees tesla as over valued and i think we see them take a fairly big hit down. Once this does it will finish our correction of spy and nasdaq to total of 25%… i think msft and apple will maintain their valuations).

So onto tomorrow what should we suspect?

Well interestingly after hours on my chart (some webull users say they did not see this on theirs). I saw a massive spike up to again fall just short of the green dotted resistance line.

30 min macd did turn to buy. Rsi is curling upward and leaving room for another run at this resistance line. Though i doubt we break it. My anticipation is tomorrow we test that resistance line early morning again near 439-440 and then dip after again.

We saw extremely strong support today near 430. We DID break it very quickly but the buy pressure was too much. This is our fight zone. 430 and 440. One thing i am seeing is we have moved so far upward in this green dotted channel that unless we see some massive sell off days despite being bearish long term we will break it. However 2 or 3 days of nothing but sell offs (which we have not seen any days of just pure red this week will push us low enough to stay in the channel). Realistically we need a red day to finish down 1-2% in order to stay in this channel. And honestly we are kinda due for one. Im shocked that both today and yesterday stopped short of only about 0.5-1% down.

Supports intraday- 429.5 –> 425 –> 420.76 Resistance intraday- 434.5 –> 440 –> breakout

Support- -1%=427 -2%= 422.6 -3%= 418.3

Resistance- +1%=435.6 +2%= 439.8 +3% 444.17

Looking at the % up and down we can go its interesting that being up 2% tomorrow still keeps us in this bearish channel. Now mind you as time progresses the channel progresses with the chart so towards end of day tomorrow the upper limit of the channel will probably be closer to 438 or so… i really am surprised we have not sold off yet to touch that 420 support area we saw this week… and i think maybe tomorrow could be the day it happens.

Overall the chart and sentiment is still bearish. If and when we break this green dotted channel i will consider whether or not we are bullish. There is another resistance line up near 460 we have to break in order to see a full recovery breakout.

Submitted January 28, 2022 at 03:07AM by DaddyDersch
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