Russian – Ukrainian conflict analysis via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing

Russian – Ukrainian conflict analysis

I had some free time today so I decided to do some analysis of Russian – Ukrainian conflict.

I will be thankful for your feedback on it.

Russian – Ukrainian conflict analysis

  • Russia is a relatively isolated country which major imports are easily replaceable by other world economies (raw materials etc.) and a potential war with Ukraine would not cause a complete stop to its exports. The only exception is a disruption to natural gas supplies to Eastern and Central Europe, that most likely won’t be long lasting.
  • Natural gas suppliers to Europe: Russia (41 %), Norway (16 %), Algeria (8 %) and Qatar (5 %)
  • Disruption of Ukrainian exports will have very little effect on global markets and a potential war will be relatively short (similarly to conflict in Crimea)
  • Conflict is extremely likely. Russia’s president needs military conflicts to stay in power, the US president needs not to get involved in conflicts to stay in power, Germany is scared of limited gas supplies, and the UK is sufficiently geographically and politically isolated from potential conflict.
  • Relatively short disruption to natural gas supplies to Eastern Europe from Russia will be replaced by suppliers from Qatar, the US, and other sources of energy.
  • There are many global players that may in theory benefit from it but large parts of their portfolio is usually dependent on Russian gas supplies.
  • Stocks of all gas suppliers that may benefit from the conflict are already up by +25%. Which correctly reflects the risks and potential benefits of limited supply.
  • It is very unlikely that Russian gas supplies will be cut off significantly for long periods of time. Russia may limit supplies to Ukraine only. Germany will not agree to sanctions that will affect natural gas imports.

Submitted January 29, 2022 at 11:13AM by marcinxyz
via reddit