RIVN is dead in the water and their trucks won’t even float.
Okay, so here’s the deal. Rivian has absolutely nothing going for it. It can’t break into the market for consumers because its target market doesn’t know trucks at all, and the market it could feasibly advertise to has brand loyalty and doesn’t want electric trucks because the smell of gas is too good. It also has an extremely ambitious plan for charging stations across the US which isn’t going to happen under their name because they’re hemhorraging money like a hemophiliac with a cut artery.
Hell even look at their preorders and manufacturing. Making 1000 cars in 3 months and having 71,000 preordered? On top of having 100,000 trucks slated for amazon? It’s going to take two years to make even a tenth of those because of material costs, manufacturing, shipping, and servicing. By that point they’re going to be losing money by manufacturing previous models when everyone is buying their Ford and Chevy pickups that run on Uranium or corn oil or some shit that has more power than their already underwhelming pickup specs. That’s long term, but it’s going to reflect in their earnings tomorrow because holy shit the company has no guidance on what they want to do.
“But wait, Amazon owns 20% of the company, they wouldn’t let it go under!”
Joke’s on you they absolutely would. The services they’ve started up and failed is getting longer each year. Even the whole foods acquisition is losing them money each year and thy can’t expand on it or any of their other side services. Each time they do, the service lasts 1-2 years max and then is completely removed, whether it’s a subscription service or product.
“The company can remain solvent while they get more manufacturing capacities though!”
They have billions in debt and their upcoming factory is going to cost them billions more. Now they want a battery recycling plant that’s going to cost them $5bil and employ 7,500 people at competitive wages starting in 2024 when they hope to start manufacturing and becoming profitable. Building costs alone are going to eat them alive before it’s even making trucks that aren’t profitable because they’re going to need to manufacture 171,000 vehicles at the promised price which will be a loss.
Their last quarter posted horrible losses, increased overhead costs, and only boasted further lofty expansion ideals that will again, increase their costs and not generate profit to match. This quarter is going to eat them alive and their methods of generating revenue are going to continue to fail until they start focusing on generating actual income instead of trying to promise the moon.
Here’s my positions because I can’t buy any more until I make bank from this. https://www.imgur.com/a/lUHPvfX
This is not financial advice, and I actually have no idea if their trucks float or not. I just know electricity and water don’t mix well.
Edit: DJ just sent out a news story saying that earnings don’t matter and that the only part that will matter is the manufacturing capacity. Investors are expecting only 40,000 cars by the end of the year, just over half of the preorders if no one cancels. Prices are only going up on raw materials and manufacturing too, so the longer it takes for them to get made the lower they net per vehicle and can’t manufacture ones at the new price until previour orders are filled. That’s not even including the Amazon contract of 100,000 freight vans. They’re expecting an 18% move up or down according to Barrons.com. They’re going to lose a shit ton of money on the cars that already got sent out because of the insane costs to everything and they still haven’t cauterized that figurative hemhorraging femoral money artery. This stock is going to the GROUND.
2nd edit: these numbers are good for Rivian’s forward growth, right? https://imgur.com/a/j511eJE
3rd edit: get fucked Rivian, only 9,000 more R1T preorders since last quarter, $4.6 net operating loss for 2021, losing money for each car produced, tripled amount of R&D spending, and now expected to produce a whopping 25,000 cars in 2022 compared to the 40,000 estimate. Can’t even fill all preorders now for 2.5 years at this rate, and by that point the technology will be outdated. My puts are gonna be spicy tenders tomorrow, people!