Please talk me out of buying Russian stocks via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing


Please talk me out of buying Russian stocks

Ok so I was analyzing this whole mess while I was taking a shit and having a bit of πŸƒ so this might be stupid af but I’m thinking there’s no way Russia isn’t out of Ukraine by the end of March/April. Russia is losing this war so far or they wouldn’t go to the negotiations table with Ukraine. Russia will demand a shit ton of stuff that Ukraine will refuse at first but eventually Russia will want three assurances from Ukraine: 1. Pledge to never join NATO or EU 2. Recognize Crimea as Russian territory 3. Give small parts of the breakaway regions to Russia or at the very least give them much more autonamy

Ukraine will have no choice but to accept, otherwise Russia will play carrot stick and just double down on their assault if these demands are refused. Now sure, this is not Putin’s wet dream scenario nor is it Zelensky’s, but I can see these being acceptable to everyone from the west to Putin to Ukraine. Putin can go and say he got what he needed from this war. Zelensky says he stopped a war, and west can get their sweet sweet oil. Now if this war was going better for Russia they would never go to the negotiation table, but since it’s been going worst they have realized they have to, further helping my theory. Zelensky too just asked to join the EU in order to give him more cards to play with against Putin. He knows there’s zero chance the block will have them, they won’t get the support of the 27 countries and joining the eu takes years, not hours. So I just don’t see why he would ask to join the EU out of the blue unless he needs some cards to show Putin in negotiations, and then say he assuring him he won’t join if they withdraw. Now if there’s a peace agreement Russian stocks go πŸ“ˆπŸ“ˆπŸ“ˆπŸ“ˆπŸ“ˆ. And quiet frankly I can’t see how Russia can continue devaluing their currency without Putin starting to face backlash at home at some point, and the thing he is most scared of is losing power. Anyway please discuss this and tell me if I’ve gone mental or if I should buy options on Russia stocks.

Edit: basically how can Russia continue this? I don’t see how they can past April and they can get an acceptable resolution through this negotiation. Also I would buy ERUS and RSX which are traded in the US

Submitted March 01, 2022 at 01:09AM by ydxistheking
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