NrdRage’s Saturday….Travelcenters of America?! Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to end up on Fox News with Jesse Watters and become a meme – Doreearnings edition
(Images will be added as I work through the no no words)
Sup fucksticks? Long time no chat.
First, the bad news: Those of you who still pester me to do Friday DD’s or get invites to the sub I’m in that talks about shit on a deeper level are still going to have to settle for angrily masturbating to a poster of JPow in your linen closet. Why? Because I like money and I make way more of it on stocks I do individual DD on and keep it to my damn self rather than post it all over the internet. Matter of fact, it would have started costing me money to post that shit towards the end had I not tested that theory in ways that were profitable, and bitch best not be fucking with my money. Data scrapers, what can you do? So stop fucking asking.
Now, the good news: I’m still gonna help you stepmom/stepsister fantasizing twats level up your gray matter so you can maybe start to realize fetishizing touching your dick to where your dad’s was just in and his crusted up jizz is still hanging out is kinda gross.
Anyhow, let’s talk about earnings, and why what you think is going to happen is probably wrong, so maybe don’t put your dick in the wood chipper after the month most of you have had. For the record, as a general rule I don’t play earnings unless I come across something patently obvious. Any positions I currently have are not because of earnings, and something I often sell beforehand to get out of the way of. So don’t take any of this as some sort of shadow opportunity, this is just looking at historical trend.
First, the obligatory thumbnail, because what better way to symbolize ‘try not to do dumb shit and get raped’ than to symbolize a confessed literal rapist who does dumb shit and gets raped on national TV?:
Let’s get to it, shall we? First, the rulesets: I’m not going to go through every company on the earnings list. Nor am I going to talk about any companies that report on Monday or before the bell on Tuesday – those earnings are too close upcoming and the datasets can’t effectively be used. What I’m interested in displaying here are the 2 days before earnings, and a short period of days after earnings. We’re gonna go back 2 years in analysis because that’s when most of you payout wizards started thinking you were titans, and we’re going to focus exclusively on price action, because if you haven’t figured out IV in relation to earnings by now, you’re too fucking stupid to be here and you should have some balls on your chin behind a dumpster while getting a Frosty dumped on your head. Also, I’ll be making some of you famous for all the wrong reasons. You’ve been Doreened.
First, let’s start off by calling out the Shillman and, by proxy, a lot of you chumps that follow him by going with the most obvious bad move of the year. $NFLX
Let’s look at the charts:
Going back, only twice in the last 8 quarters did $NFLX not take a shit all over its shareholders after earnings. Matter of fact, if you go 3 days before and compare to its action after earnings, your average rate of return on the equity was -5.65%. Since all of you play short term calls, this translates roughly into, u r fuk. This is without the added volatility of, literally, the Worst-Period-January-Period-Ever-Period for Mr. Market. That makes you double retarded.
Now that the Inverse Cramer ad is out of the way, let’s look forward.
Is he right? Let’s take a look at $AMD. I’ve gone 3 days before just to ensure this year’s line (the nude on the bottom) gets included in the chart, but we’re going to focus on 2 days before and 3 days after – so basically this upcoming trading week.
We’ve got 2 big moves upwards, 5 moves downwards (with 2 big ones down), and 1 where it basically stayed flat. If you remove the Russian and Korean judges (the big down/big ups), you’ve got a general move of about 5% to the downside. BUT, there’s always a chance and the data isn’t super conclusive, right? So let’s distill it further to the Q4’s
Well that’s a lot less good. About a 7% drop. Q4 just isn’t AMD’s quarter – Q2 is; that’s where both of the big moves upwards happened. So Sponge is a visionary; he’s about 6 months ahead of his time. Unfortunately, he’ll be homeless by then. Also, Cramer likes it, soooooo….
Worth noting, however, that $AMD does typically rise into earnings, so calls bought on Monday and sold Tuesday before the closing bell will very likely make everybody else tendies that they can enjoy while Sponge starts an OF page with Jack Murphy.
Disclaimer: I have an equity position in $AMD and a bunch of leaps for January
Shoutout to /u/pabel101 for recognizing that he’s fuk, tho. Solid self awareness bro.
Our next segment features /u/gnanwahs, who claims a YOLO into $MTCH puts are a lock. Puts on this one has become a popular call here on the sub, so it’s not really just him.
He’ll be doing an interview with Chris Hayes because he needs to be opposite someone less masculine than him and the pickings were slim. But will he be rich and weak or just weak? For $MTCH, including all 8 quarters doesn’t really convey anything – 4 up, 4 down, no real continuity based on what quarters are better than others. So we’re just going to look at the last 4 quarters.
Q4 2020 stands out as the anomaly here, and there’s an argument you can discount that one from consideration because it can be explained by world events: People were finally coming out from hiding under their beds and needed new partners because their relationships had been obliterated by spending a year locked up. $MTCH was quietly the ultimate re-opening play. The counterargument to that is that if you look at the nude line representing this quarter (another Q4), you’ll see it’s the only other one other than that Q4 that was trending up going into earnings – the only quarter where it took off. Make your own decision there. Looking at the last 3 quarters, what you see is one that was dipping into earnings, then collapsed, then continued to collapse for quite some time after. You’ve got one that dipped hard the day before earnings, then completely recovered the next day and remained basically flat, and one in which it dropped on earnings and then spent the remainder of the week recovering to a higher high.
Personally? I look at this one and, on its face, I like the short idea in theory. But when I look at the charts, the current quarter is sort of mimicking the last Q4, 2 of the 3 remaining quarters indicate theta gang is going to be the real winner. In any case, there won’t be any real clarity on this one until towards the end of the day Monday – there’s just too much uncertainty. If it were me playing it, I’d sit out earnings and, if it looks like it’s going to melt down, THEN go short and ride that, sacrificing the initial drop from the earnings. Which maybe makes me the bitch. Calls on u/gnanwahs’s balls. Unless he has to sell one to recover. Course, 100 seems an ambitious put and one I think might get IV’d.
Next up, we have /u/joshvir262, who’s in on $PYPL. The chart doesn’t give us a lot of data, with 4 up/4 down. Breaking it to Q4’s doesn’t, either, with 1 huge leap in Q4 2020 and one slight gain in 2019.
If we go to just the last 4 quarters, we see 3 significant drops (this stock has been getting KILLED for about 9 months now) and 1 monster rip. But what’s interesting to note here is the nude line, which is pretty closely mimicking the last Q4 rip.
If you dig deeper into the intraday charts from these periods, there’s a couple points of scalping one can usually do in the last 1-1.5 days leading up to the report, almost always to the upside. So even if you don’t feel confident in the earnings, some Monday/Tuesday calls could print for you with an eye towards exiting before judgement. Disclaimer: I have a position in Venmo that I recently opened at the lows which looks a lot like a $PYPL position on screen, and am inclined to believe the trend will continue to follow Q4 2020 and pop on earnings, breaking a 3 quarter slump.
Let’s go to /u/desperateselection96, who’s user name checks out as he threw all his money into $F 23’s in a last ditch effort to convince his wife that some things are more important than 9.6mm rock hard.
….Yeah, the charts are no help here. It’s all over the place. This shit spins like an autistic slacker in a gamer chair who doesn’t know whether he’s being roasted or praised. Doesn’t matter how you break it down, there’s no telling what this thing is going to do. Current trend line isn’t mimicking anything else, either. Just going off history, it’s a complete coin flip. However, $F has displayed amazing resiliency for the 19’s as a support territory, which is where it is right now. This is really just praying to the stock gods that it doesn’t replicate Q4 2019 or Q1 2021 if you’re bullish. Or Q2 21, Q3 20 or Q4 20 if you’re bearish. Either way, be aware that theta gang will beat your ass the next day, so you’re either in this for the long term or else you’d better not stay too long. Disclaimer: I have a position in things built tough and will be holding through earnings thick or thin, as I plan on holding through a good chunk of the year.
Will /u/xchrisz get a new furnace for his daddy? The tale of the $LII tape…
This one is too early in the week to play options on, but there is a play here.
With 1 exception (Q2 20), you can pretty safely bet on a drop and a relatively quick recovery to the mean. So if you short this thing and then get out right after the dump, there are tendies to be made here. Calls and puts will be fuk, tho. Maybe Chris’s wife can fuck the installer for a discount in a desperate attempt to gain daddy’s approval, and then post the video to PH so she can find a boyfriend. But I’m not sure I’d even necessarily trust that – there’s a good chance it replicates Q4 2019 and just ends up eating everybody’s options. It’s just not a mover.
I might add more of these Saturday overnight ($SWKS, $HON, $EL, $FB, $GM, $PINS and ESPECIALLY one reporting before the bell on Wednesday that not one of you retards are looking at are of particular note), but I’ve been working on this for at least 15 minutes and nobody should be forced to work that much, it goes against everything America stands for.
Submitted January 29, 2022 at 11:48PM by NrdRage
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