Let’s Play…Am I retarded? Market says 7.5% Inflation, commodities showcase 100%+- via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing


Let’s Play…Am I retarded? Market says 7.5% Inflation, commodities showcase 100%+-

Well happy friday degenerates. This lengthy post can hopefully be a guide for truly understanding the reality of the markets vs. equities. For retards like myself…

The Issue at hand: 1. Inflation 2. How accurate are our Inflation indicators

While I understand how CPI and PCE work and how they are calculated. Zooming out away from these “inflation” indicators, the macro picture looks a lot different. In the age of data, anyone who has worked with data knows just how easy it is to “fudge,” the data. Albeit often times golden nuggets can be found because ultimately we are human. We make errors and we are often to lazy to fix all the data…

When I mean looking at the macro picture, I’m looking at commodities we use on almost a regular basis. Also I included lumber because it drives the construction industry and has historically been a good indicator for macro outlook as a whole. (my screen shots suck, GFY)

Here are my questions for you all, based on the charts below of common commodities,

  1. do you believe inflation is already out of control?
  2. Is the real rate of inflation actually astronomical? What is the real rate of inflation?
  3. Do you all believe that as money comes out of the market (equities), it would go into digital currencies as an inflation hedge? Thus completely changing correlation from some digital currencies to say the nasdaq?
  4. What is the best inflation hedge?
  5. Is it true the united states needs inflation to remain high to pay off interest from debts?
  6. Would a Ukrainian war further push up inflation?

Here is why i believe our inflation rate is much higher than what markets state. Also in looking at these charts, I’m focusing on Jan 1 2020 to Jan 1 2022.

  1. Let’s look at the price of coffee. (The stuff that makes you sound smart and energized)

Jan 1 2020 ~$126 to Jan 1 2022 : ~$231

https://preview.redd.it/utpupdyi0oi81.png?width=1748&format=png&auto=webp&s=39eaabfcb004af2cb1b8440bc6fcba72e02596ba

  1. Lets take a look at Lumber (LB1:COM) (Stuff they use to build walls)

Jan 1 2020: ~$427 to Jan 2022 ~$1142 (not even percentage increase, rather multiple increase)

https://preview.redd.it/zhmpzp8d1oi81.png?width=1744&format=png&auto=webp&s=f1c1afbf01e032a553179780d9351e52644eb508

  1. Wheat (Stuff in your wheat thins)

Jan 1 2020: ~$554 to Jan 1 2022 ~$770

https://preview.redd.it/77q4xh0r1oi81.png?width=1756&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c8a816af7261d4d0d9c2e378da426cd9b82d529

  1. Let’s Look at Corn (The stuff that doesn’t always make it through😉 ) Also the stuff that makes tortilla chips …. fyi santitas are the best tortilla chips, only sold in southwest usa grocery stores….

Jan 1 2020: ~$386 to Jan 1 2022: ~$593

https://preview.redd.it/kfmzmz392oi81.png?width=1662&format=png&auto=webp&s=83ec600069f25d08932f12c4bd386b7e29b11507

  1. Lastly, Cotton. You know the stuff that’s used to make the clothes on your back. (also best screenshot)

Jan 1 2020: ~$69 to Jan 1 2022 ~$109

https://preview.redd.it/j298k0dl3oi81.png?width=1718&format=png&auto=webp&s=e3dbcb74dc6411885142a025b2d7e0f070668abf

You know i’m no mathematician, i’m just an ape|🌈🐻…… but it seems all of these prices are more than 7.5% higher over the last few years. (yes i know CPI/PCE are typically shown in YOY)

Please help me decipher these hieroglyphs….

Submitted February 18, 2022 at 11:31PM by taitkenflight
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