Inverse WallStreetBets; Meta/FB as a long term growth investment via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing


Inverse WallStreetBets; Meta/FB as a long term growth investment

My initial disclaimer:

Meta is not a traditional/standard WSB quick play. I’m not suggesting anyone buy any at this time; and I don’t currently hold any myself. This is a 5-10 year play; and if you’re looking for somewhere to park some money over that time period I am predicting 500-1000% gains in that time period.

The Bear’s Thesis:

  • A. They are a dying company used exclusively by boomers
  • B. Changes to data collection policies by Apple and Google handicaps revenue
  • C. The Metaverse is a poorly thought out attempt to pivot business strategies.

Disputing these thoughts; and why I’m Bullish

  1. Available user data does not reflect that Facebook is dying; or that it’s user base is primarily boomers. As of October of 2021, Facebook had 2.9 billion monthly active users (~36% of the world’s population) — over the 13 quarters prior; Facebook has ALWAYS posted growth.
  • Analyzing that user base;
    • 66% of those users login every day,
    • Median age of users is 31
    • ~60% of users are between the age of 13-34.
  • Analyzing traffic
    • Facebook is the 3rd most visited Website on the internet (behind Google and Youtube)
    • 11.2B visits per day by 1.5B unique visitors
      • The next most visited Social Media site is Instagram (which is FB) at 2.9B and Twitter at 2.4B visits. Facebook gets ~5x the visits by about ~2x the unique visitors.
    • ~22 minutes average time per visit
    • ~6 pages per visit
    • THIS TRAFFIC DATA DOES NOT REFLECT MOBILE APP VISITS, JUST BROWSER VISITS
  1. The fact that Facebook gets 11.2B visits a day by 1.5B unique visitors means that while Apple/Google cutting off mobile data collection may have some impact on FB’s revenue; they still can obtain an enormous amount of data from browser access.

  2. In 2022 the Metaverse is an outlandish concept that most of us (myself included) can see absolutely no value or utility in. Up to now VR has been a novelty with little application outside of video games and porn. It isn’t wrong to be skeptical of this. BUT as of now Meta is way out in front on building an all encompassing virtual reality platform; and has cemented themselves as THE leader/gateway for anyone looking to develop a virtual reality product. If you need any confirmation bias that there is potential for value; Google which companies are investing in/working on/becoming a part of the Metaverse. Facebook’s Metaverse has a high probability to be for VR what iOS and Android have been for smartphones.

As for why I believe Meta will see 500-1000% gains over the next 5-10 years:

The iPhone began development in 2004, was released in 2007, and reached most popular status in ~2011. In that time Apple’s stock price (adjusted for splits and approximated for an annual value) was ~$.48, $5.40, and $12.10 respectively.

Now comparing that to the intended timeline of Zuck’s Metaverse: Development began in 2021/22. The development timeline that I typically see for release of a product resembling a genuine VR worldscape is ~5 years. We’ll call it 2027. Zuck is predicting 1 billion MAU on the Metaverse by 2031. If we apply the same price movement that Apple achieved with the iPhone; Facebook’s current price ~$210 rises to ~$2,400 in 2027, and reaches ~$5,300 by 2031. I appreciate that comparing those price movements is an extremely non-scientific method for prediction and that there was a lot of other shit going on with Apple in that timeframe; so I’ve applied a 50% reduction to those increases for the sake of conservativeness and we’re still left with a share price of ~$2,150 in 2031.

TLDR:
FB is still growing and primarily used by young people

FB has more than enough browser based traffic to keep its data supply without Apple/Google’s cooperation

VR is a realistic/legitimate growth industry ; and FB has positioned themselves to create the iOS/Android that the rest of VR is run on.

Price target is $2000 by the end of 2031. If it doesn’t hit mods can ban me.

Submitted February 21, 2022 at 10:26PM by TehSillyKitteh
via reddit https://ift.tt/B58euyG