Imminent Market Drop.
We have just passed the middle of a 21-22 years cycle.
A 21.5 years cycle occurred between the Black Monday low in October 1987 and the Financial crisis low in March 2009. With a top after 12.5 years in March 2000 (tec bubble). And then 9 years of long cycle bear market with a major low after 2.5 years and a final low in 2009 after 9 years.
Another 21-22 years cycle should have started in March 2009 and will probably end in a new low in 2030/2031. The market should have topped in November 2021 after about 12.5 years. New lows should be at the end of 2023 or start of 2024. Then the bear market will continue for 6-7 years.
The trend of the last 2 years (Covid period) before the Nov-21 top, with a crash in March 2020 followed by a 18 months Bull market is also very similar to the period 1998-2000.
Inflation, or worse stagflation, are the reasons of an inevitable decline of the markets with the 10 years bonds already at 2.5% that don’t justify current Sp500 and Nasdaq multipliers.
Next short term 2022 events.
End of the Ukraine war in April and relief rally. Fed hikes rates by 0.50 in May. The market tops in the first two weeks of May with SPX above 4,700 and Nasdaq100 above 15,700.
Market drops until October 2022, up to a -25%/-30% yearly return. Then a relief rally until the end of the year to close at -15%/-20%.
2023 forecast will follow…..
Not financial advice. I will disclose the name of the person who made this crystal ball forecast in October once the market hits the 2022 low.
Submitted March 28, 2022 at 12:34PM by simonegigli80
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