Back in 2007, I was hired to be administrative support for a managing director who had a pretty storied career on Wall Street. We went through the financial crisis and the flash crash, and one day in 2009 he came into work beaming, wearing a blue baseball cap that read DOW 10,000. I didn’t get the joke, but everyone else did.
The hats (you can google image search them) were given out in jubilation back in 1999 when the DOW crossed 10,000 for the first time. But then things got bumpy.
Ten thousand wasn’t the top, there was still another 10% rise, but then, in 2002, the DOW crossed 10,000 again — this time in the wrong direction — and bottomed at 8,000. Two years later, it crossed 10,000 again (yay!) and even rose another 40% (double yay!). But then, in 2008, it crossed back down (boo!) and bottomed just above 6,000.
So when my boss came in with his rakish grin, wearing his original DOW 10,000 hat, it was a humorous nod to all of those ups and downs, and that now, a full 10 years after the hat was issued, we were all crossing that line again.
The DOW only crossed 10,000 once more — barely, in 2010, and then took off. It now sits above 35,000 (I had to look it up, because who pays attention to the DOW anymore?). I’m certainly not suggesting it’s going back to 10,000, or even close. However, the hat — and the decade it represents — has been on my mind since 2022 kicked off with the turbulence we’re still experiencing.
Take it or leave it, of course, but I’m offering this as a cautionary tale to anyone quick to call a bottom or a top, or to think that these last 4 months of trading can be considered a full cycle. It is very possible we’re going to cross the same lines again and again in the coming months –or even years. It’s my thesis, at least, and I’m going to try my best to not get carried away by a two-week rally here or a two-week dip there. And I really wish I had one of those hats.
Submitted March 30, 2022 at 09:50PM by idaebaker
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