Don’t bet against the Mouse – DIS DD
Thesis: Disney + / Vaccines / Reopening / Rising Prices
Disney + has taken Netflix’s market share. There is a set market for video streaming and with Netflix’s numbers coming out we saw they are not gaining as many users as before, my thesis is that Dis+ took most of it with better kid friendly content. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=%2Fg%2F11f5bxylc0
We saw what Snap did when Facebook reported they were losing marketshare, I am adopting the same thesis to Disney taking Netflix marketshare. Not to mention Encanto being one of Disneys biggest movies this quarter – https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=encanto
On Vaccines we know that more and more people are vaccinated and with both theme parks open we should see more and more people heading to parks. With JnJ reporting massive vaccine sales we should see MRNA and PFE also report the same which just means more people are vaccinated. This ties into https://allears.net/2022/01/24/we-werent-ready-for-the-crowds-in-disney-world-today/ the huge number of people just visiting all the parks.
Genie+ / Fast pass – https://touringplans.com/blog/how-to-use-disney-genie-and-lightning-lane-at-disneyland/ – Disneyland pretty much said fuck it lets charge park goers an extra $30-$50 for the same experience to save time.
Technicals – We already saw a huge drop in DIS – https://www.tradingview.com/x/zmMP0itP/ trading at 2019 Pre Pandemic levels which is in par with the similar drops we’ve seen on major tech companies, so the drop is already in, with more R:R on the upside.
Nancy Pelosi – She bought Dis leaps that is all I need to go all in
My position 2/18 $145s @ 3.7
Submitted February 08, 2022 at 05:21AM by 1ceyou
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