TLDR: Blackrock Crisis is going to be the face of the current bear market and the 2022 market crash.
Here is some chart work to follow up on a post I made last night about how Blackrock is not only already tanking due to its assets shrinking in value across the board, but also as its position in international equities put it in a precarious position with the ongoing international financial disruptions. Here is that post.
Recently Blackrock has been behaving like a leveraged S&P500. I’m not a TA guy but here are some lines on a chart that you can decided it you think are real or not. The better info is coming after this:
Here is Blackrock vs S&P 500. As you can see Blackrock outperformed in the low interest rate environment, but has started dumping and is about to cross SPY.
Okay, so a lot of people are comparing our current bear market to the taper tantrum in 2018 which I think is a great comparison. Here is how Blackrock did against Spy in 2018. It looks like we had a pretty sustained down trend leading up to the Spy correction.
Here is what mortgage rates were doing at that time. Mortgage rates rose steadily for the couple years leading up to the correction.
Here is what mortgage rates are doing right now.
TLDR but at the end: Mortgage rates are skyrocketing right now and will bring about the next big correction/crash in the markets. Even without the black swan event that I think Blackrock is particularly exposed to due to its international holdings Blackrock has a ways to go yet in its current down trend due to these rising rates.
Position: BLK Apr 14 $630puts
Accumulating more over the next couple weeks.