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BB DD

Hi BBelievers,

A few days ago I commented on the BB Stock daily thread and it sparked some interest. I work within the cybersec industry at a large vendor and have frequent conversations with a variety of people holding roles such as CISO, Sys Admin, Network Admin, and so on. I want to cover a few things related to the current BB solution stack and how it compares to the rest of the industry.

•Blackberry is 100% a competitor in the cybersec space but they continuously fall behind other vendors to secure net-new logo customers and retain existing customers •BB operates in many facets of IoT security, a niche differentiation from leading competitors that have no comparable offerings •BB acquired Good Technology and more recently Cylance to augment their security offerings •BB sells via Channel through SPs, ISVs, and MSSPs

All that being said, they are in a good position for growth. They are laggards when it comes to endpoint/server protection but have the potential to grow that arm of the business substantially in the near future through acquisitions and feature implementations/improvements.

Let’s examine their existing solutions and why they aren’t securing market share.

•BB Protect – ML based Endpoint protection

Cylance was one of the first vendors to offer a sturdy endpoint solution integrated with ML to mitigate the risk of zero-day exploits and start the migration from signature based to signatureless based AV engines. Almost all vendors are signatureless now but haven’t deprecated the signature engine entirely as it still serves a function in identifying previously utilized attack methods.

The agent has a small footprint with a comparable resource draw to other vendors but their level of protection is fairly narrow and not reliable as they do not regularly participate in 3rd party validation tests. The deployment can be lengthy and for larger companies that is a tremendous drawback. Check out Gartner, AV-Test, and Forrester Wave.

Machine learning is a buzzword nowadays. In the context of cybersecurity it is utilized to detect not previously seen attacks, unknown malware, and potentially unwanted applications. BB ML comes with a high false positive rate and more work needs to be done to win businesses over. Their Anti-malware, ransomware, and exploit protection is not comprehensive with many common features missing.

BB Optics – EDR/XDR threat hunting tools

These tools have become commonplace after compliance/insurance requirements. In short, they allow a company to run queries on their security telemetry that’s stored on disk or on the cloud. Queries are run to identify vulnerabilities and threats so you can then take action to remediate. BB has limited XDR and lacks the capabilities to remediate threats effectively for a company’s SOC. Isolation and remote command line access are necessary features of EDR and BB doesn’t stack up.

BB Guard – MDR/IR/SOC as a Service

Incident response/MDR is a game changer for companies without the bandwidth to hunt and remediate threats by themselves. BB does not have a fully managed SOC offering to remediate, their focus is detection and triaging.

If they build up a heftier SOC and offer remediation/IR they can convert IR customers to long-term Guard Advanced.

Their server protection is basically non existent so I won’t cover it. If they want to grow, it requires a full stack offering to create heavily invested customers. It’s a hassle to manage numerous management consoles and configure the plethora of policies between them.

Real potential is seen with their QNX hypervisor and IVY. Data is the new oil and they are set to cash in. They are the #1 automotive embedded OS and have cornered the OEM market. RTOS – real time operating systems will grow correspondingly with EV/AI self-driving adoption. This could be hindered by component shortages, global logistics going down the drain, and resource shortages stemming from events such as the invasion of Ukraine and their stranglehold on the worlds semiconductor grade neon.

Blackberry will not and should not ever become the next Crowdstrike, Sentinelone, or Sophos. They should remain on course to takeover the IoT world and introduce EV data telemetry like we’ve never seen before. The moment a snowflake rolls down a hill it has no choice but to grow and expand to a snowball. I see BB capitalizing on this relatively new industry and becoming a massive snowball crushing and integrating all the other snowballs in its path down this EV hill.

There is a huge focus on John Chen but we need to look at those who actively manage the company and not just the figurehead.

•John Giametto – President BB Cyber (Previously McAfee President/CRO)

•Mattias Eriksson – President BB IoT Mattias is the real driver of QNX/IVY success

•Mark Wilson – CMO Long term CMO, need his team to pump some life into BB and make it a household name no longer synonymous with phones

•Nita White-Ivy – CHRO Nita leads HR and BB has had significant employee growth count under her leadership. BB is rapidly expanding sales/engineering head count to lock in additional sales revenue across the board

I hold 7,500 long shares and plan to increase my position to 10-15,000 shares gradually across the year. Compare BB to CRWD for fun. $38 billion difference in market cap, nearly identical EPS, and nearly identical float. BB financials stack up well except for one important metric…growth! BB has stagnated and is priced in correspondingly based off their prior and expected growth. CRWD is priced in based off their rapid growth. If BB puts up the growth analysts want to see then the moon is ours.

To summarize, $BB $500 by EoY

Submitted February 27, 2022 at 06:44AM by Drunlebel
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