The bears did it! They finally had a red day! OF course, the bulls had to rally the last 30 minutes and not let the bears enjoy too much fun today. But overall we finally had a red day.
After the bears managed to secure a red open it looked like initially the bulls were gonna turn this red day into yet another green day. Thankfully, the bears finally around 1015am were able to get some footing but it was not until about 1230 that we finally saw the bears really dig in. With the 459.2 double top the bears were able to sink SPY all the way to 456.47 for the low of the day during power hour. I had called yesterday that we were going to have a red day and a gap fill and we came within about 70 cents of filling the gap. It definitely is not 100% filled but it very well may be “good enough “ for now.
End of day saw an amazing rally where the bulls got it all the way back up to and through the intraday resistance line and back at that heavy 459.2 resistance line.
It was quite wild and boring watching intraday today considering we only have about a range of $2.6 from open until 145pm where we finally saw a bigger move.
The question going into tomorrow is will the bulls gap this through resistance at 460 and retest the current highs of 462 with a target of 465-468 or will the bears have another day to themselves when we test the channel support near 456 with a goal of retesting and breaking through 454 support and targeting the heavily target 448-450 range.
You can see we are trending downward in the channel finally but watching intraday today it was a struggle for the bears all day.
The VIX once again had an impressive day with quite the range with a big gap up at open to 19.71 then a big gap down to 18.72 at open. The VIX too traded within a very tight range all afternoon from 19.6 to 19.2 before it finally saw a massive pop to 20.51 during power hour and then elevatored down to a close at 19.34. With the VIX being so low the wild swings and moves are going to be less impressive. The best plays I had today were all when the VIX made a big move. That is the best way to play this low volume currently.
Apple FINALLY saw a red day! It snapped its longest green streak since 2003 which was 11 days. Closing down a very modest -0.66%. Apple looked incredibly weak intraday today and very much so struggled to get through most resistance.
The Daily chart looks like we are riding the 8ema wave all the way to ATH. With the gap essentially being filled SPY like I said can easily go back on a bull run tomorrow. With the current channel the max I see is 470 and the lowest I would suspect is 450.
With March ended which has essentially been a recovery month it will be interesting to see if the start of April Friday will bring a retrace of if we will continue the bullrun. At this rate we very well could see ATH by next week. Which is just absolutely mind blowing to me.
Today I again practiced patience making four total trades today. Three were smaller morning plays with a -30% put at open, a 45% put on the first major dip, a 20% apple put and then a big 50% put on spy at the end of the day riding it from the 130pm highs to pretty much bottom.
Overall was a very good day today. And despite my greedy Monday that burnt me it has been an excellent week already.
Submitted March 31, 2022 at 02:40AM by DaddyDersch
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