3/28/22 SPY Daily Analysis (extra indepth review of my trades and the intraday reversal today). revenge trade. via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing


3/28/22 SPY Daily Analysis (extra indepth review of my trades and the intraday reversal today). revenge trade.

I am not quite sure what it is about Mondays but they sure have a way of screwing me real good. Which in the end is good because then the rest of the week I am digging myself out of a whole.

But truthfully I cant be mad at anyone but myself today because I got greedy. I broke my own most important rule of NEVER letting a trade go red that was once profitable.

The mid day reversal is one that got me really good though that I want to learn from because I did not call that nor did I expect it at all. I want to do this post dedicated to that so I and you can learn what we may have missed.

https://preview.redd.it/5fn0hq1727q81.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=5cee9a250f6f81d878eab46d2e50e08c61ae13ee

Here is the 15min chart of syp. Lets start at the top and work our way down.

Pre market we saw a small gap down to 451.96 at open and also set the low of pre-market at 451.24. Pre market then saw a nice recovery to 453.9 before it started to trail down again to open down about 0.1%. Essentially a flat open.

Bears came out swinging with negative 1.7 sell pressure and a retrace to a low of 451.67. This candle body closed BELOW the 8 ema.

The next candle is where the bulls attempted to leg up but the bears came in full force. The next two candles double topped at 453.6 failing to break the pre-market highs. However, these candle bodies failed to completely close above the 8 ema.

This was followed by a retrace to two candles over the 8ema at 452.61. Followed by another double top rejection at 452.3.

The trend currently would show a failure to make a new high and a failure to close a candle above the 8 ema.

At the same time frame we saw the VIX drop to a low of 21.28 and a high range of 21.75 during this same time period.

https://preview.redd.it/ty8mbjm527q81.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=72c99fd8d3d86ea7d0c052ea19c164c9e96fac97

So VIX range= 21.28 to 21.75 and SPY range= 451.7 to 453.6 during the same time frame.

Now this is when the selling began. We saw at the 11am candle the sell pressure go from -1.7 to a peak of -3.9 at 1215. The vix also went from its low at 11am of 21.7 to a high of 22.32 at 1215. Note- there was an unusual spike at 1140 of the VIX to 23.3 but it turned into a massively long wicked candle and did not sustain that level. When the VIX did this spike SPY did not react. It was an interesting phenomenon that I cant explain.

From 11am to 1215 we saw Spy drop from its high of 453.3 to 450.06 where it looking back clearly found “the bottom”.

Now this is where things get difficult. When we look at the 15minute chart from 1115a to 1230p we saw SPY close SIX full candles below the 8 ema that is in general a VERY bearish trend and numerous confirmations. The 8ema usually acts as support/ resistance confirmation.

If we were to look just at spy we would see a retrace at 1245 to 115p that led spy to finally close a candle back above the 8ema.

This is where I missed the true (and very rare) reversal. In general when SPY has a very strong trend like we saw this at 1115 where it drops very hard it almost always rests before going lower. I call it the 1,2,3 rollercoaster. Now the issue is that most play this rest period because it appears to be a true reversal as such and get burnt when the price inevitably reverts back to the trend. In the 123 rollercoaster its common to see 1 to 3 candles closed above the 8ema much like we saw at 115 to 2pm today before it finally comes back down and almost always breaks the lowest point of the day.

Now today we saw from 115p to 2pm a triple top that could have been a quad top but it was able to break through. IF you were trading spy and not looking at any other indicactors breaking that 452.6 resistance that fought for nearly an hour would have been a big clue of a true reversal versus fake recovery before the dip continues.

Now two things that did trip me up today was 1. The very low volume. I have noticed that most times the recoveries during the 123 rollercoaster before pushing lower as the lowest volume candles of the day. And if you look at SPY today from 1245 to 245pm it was the lowest volume candles of the day. We even closed a few under 700k (15minute) which never happens. The bullish recovery on a clear bearish trend is usually a hint. Another thing that tripped me up was the red premarket and opening red and changing to green close. Statistically spy will continue whatever trend it opens. So red means red close. Green means green close. It is around an 80-90% probability this occurs.

Okay so lets take our focus off SPY and look at a few things like the VIX, apple, and sell pressure.

VIX as I mentioned at its peak saw a 22.35 at 12. When VIX was at its peak Spy was at its lowest point of 450.1

So vix 22.35= spy 450.1…. now remember earlier Vix high of 21.72 at 1115 = spy at 452.4.

As the day went on VIX ended up dropping from its peak of 22.35 to a close of 19.62. Which is even more impressive considering VIX gapped up quite significantly at market open.

The one thing with the VIX I feel I missed today was when VIX retook 21.72 at 1pm spy was at 451.7. That means there was a 50 cents difference in the price. Which at the time would fit with the trend of a fake recovery.

Now fast forward to 115. VIx is at a low of 21.37 and SPY is still at 452.3. Now another 15 minutes. VIx is at 21.09 while spy is at 452.32 (doji 15 minute close).

So at 130pm that should have been my clue and my sign to sell my puts I was still holding or to enter calls.

Vix at 130 was 21.09 while spy was only at 452.32. Looking back at the morning remember when VIX was 21.72 spy was 452.4. That means there was now a 0.6 difference in spy now vs earlier in the day at the same SPY price. That should have been the sign to sell/ enter calls. In addition, despite it making absolultely no sense the VIX was in a very clear down trend and wasn’t stopping. The one thing I will say from 115p to 2pm that did hesistate me selling the puts I was holding was that the vix was falling and spy would slowly go up but come right back down. While rare it can happen where spy falls and the vix falls too.

Looking back too another big thing was that the VIX did not fall off a cliff where it usually retraces. It was a nice slow trend down.

Now looking at the sell pressure. This indicator vary rarely is wrong but you have to read it correctly. Usually during the 123 rollercoaster you will see the breadth decrese and then eventually regain ground. From its peak at 1215 of 3.9 to 2pm where it arguably confirmed a reversal we saw a decrease from -3.9 to -2.

With this indicator looking at the next candle at 215pm we see it dropped all the way to -1.5 that also should have been the clue to sell and or buy calls. That much of a decrease is not in line with the 123 rollercoaster.

Now apple. Apple was an interesting one to watch today as it moved very slowly today. Apple too reached peak sell off at 1215 before recovering slowly. Apple broke its 8ema and VWAP at 115pm before continuing to ride its 8ema wave bullishly into an impressive 10th green candle close.

In general it is safe to watch apple and whatever it does a lot of time Spy is close behind. Apple this morning at open was VERY over bought and continues to be very overbought on the 15 minute time frame.

In general looking back today greed was my killer. Here is what I played today:

I bought a odte 452 put at the opening candle when it started to break lower that I ended up holding till the next green candle broke pre market open for a -40%. This was a very very small position for me so I let it ride a little longer

I entered a odte 454C that netted me a nice 15% at peak.

I then bought another 452p 0dte and at around 1130am.

I was able to close the 0dte for 80% at the bottom of the dip around 12.

I also entered an Apple 175P at the same time.

Now the biggest mistake I made was not selling my apple and spy 4dte puts at the same time. At this point I 1000% expected a 123 rollercoaster trend. The vix was still trending higher and spy was holding making lower lows still. However, I let it get away from me. I watched two SOLID 20% gains turn to -20% apple and -30% spy before I finally convinced myself to sell. Greed killed me today. I saw the trend of lower highs and lower lows and I couldn’t let it go. I was my own worse enemy today. Looking back now with a clear mind and all the pieces of the puzzle I see how this was the rare true trend reversal.

This is now the THIRD time SPY has made a trend reversal in 7 days. Last Monday when JPOW spoke, Friday with the Saudi air field attack and now today with I guess the reaction to Bidens tax proposal.

Looking at the day chart SPY failed to break above the double top from February at 458. IT will be interesting to see tomorrow what SPY will do at that level.

https://preview.redd.it/sv1zj2z227q81.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=080af509dcaad9ec7e7d01ed381d7a19849585d4

Looking at the market now with the VIX back under 20 and honestly the market seeming numb to everything, spy with 8 green trading days, and 1 doji day in 10 trading days and Apple officially at 10 green trading days. I truly do not know what is going to be able to slow this market down. I really don’t.

We go into tomorrow with open minds and clear eyes. We have four trading days left to make up for today. But we have to remember to be patient and never

Submitted March 28, 2022 at 11:40PM by DaddyDersch
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