3-21-22 SPY Daily TA
I think we have all come to agree that JPOW at this point just really needs to STFU. But here we are yet again another day and some fuckery afoot. Its getting a little exhausting at this point. But what we saw today was essentially JPOW reiterate that he is very hawkish (the exact same stand point he had at the testimony 2 or 3 weeks ago and pretty much the same stand point last Wednesday) but for some reason today the markets decided it was time to panic. We saw about a dip from 444.56 all the way down to 440.68 before we finally saw a recovery end of day back up to 444.39 to close. SPY closed at -0.03% which technically makes it a red day but overall really didn’t feel very red.
The morning movement of SPY was very up and down also with some very unexpected trend reversals.
Going into tomorrow it will be Important to keey an eye on the intraday high around 446 and the lows near 441. Those should be key support and resistance to watch as the day essentially while bearish ended in a sideways manner.
What truly is impressive is that the VIX opened at 25.14 and closed at 23.54, dropping a full $2 without SPY moving upward and still finishing green. The VIX compared to SPY very much so under-reacted to the JPOW news today.
To be honest I actually don’t care if SPY goes all the way back to 480 or if it goes to 400. What I really just want is for SPY to go back to its normal trends where you can actually play it how it looks and not get burnt by a big green dildo candle or a big fat red fuck you candle without any warning. The overall movement does not matter but when the intraday movement is nothing but fuckery it is quite annoying. Volume wise we once again failed to meet the average turning in only 88.3 million for yet again another extremely low volume day. This is the lowest volume day since February 16th. The first sub 90mil day in over a month.
Now the daily does tell a bit of a deeper story….
It’s a little hard to tell in this pic because of the post market blue dotted line but the daily finished in a DOJI which COULD signal a reversal. Which after 4 massive red days would make sense… I mentioned Friday and this morning that today and tomorrow were going to be very telling of where this is going over the next few weeks. Unfortunately we didn’t get much direction. But the fact that JPOW once again told the market hey you idiots shits really bad and we really shouldn’t be bull running and these are the reasons why and the market said oh shit you are right for like an hour then said nah fuck that we actually are good to go for the bullrun says a lot… IF what JPOW said today isn’t going to tank the market then honestly I don’t really know what is going to stop it from going back to 460 outside of maybe a surprised rate hike or the next inflation number being 5x worse or something crazy. This market just doesn’t wanna be held down anymore.
Today though we did close BELOW the 100 EMA at 445.08 (but broke it at one point in the morning). We also found support at the 50 EMA at 440.58 when we had the massive sell off. The fact that this didn’t break through the 50 EMA is quite bull telling if you ask me. But tomorrows finish will be telling. Looking at this chart currently IF we break through the 100 EMA over night at all or tomorrow intraday I would not be surprised to see this push towards 458 to retest the double top from February by the end of the week. IF we can break through 458 there really is nothing stopping this from 470 or 480 within the next few weeks. It wouldn’t shock me one bit to see with the VIX continuing to fall and this continuing to run this break through 458 in the next few days and inevitably retouch 470s by April.
The only thing I forsee to bring this down is either the US stepping into the physical war itself in Russia, Russia attacking the US, or MAYBE once the next CPI data drops and the next FOMC happens and we hit a recession officially. But honestly we may be so recovered by then that we just have a minor dip back down 460 from 470 or 480 and return to the top after its priced in.
Overall I would NOT encourage ANYONE to bet against the market right now. My tone may change tomorrow if by some miracle bears can get this to gap down and close BELOW the daily 200 ema at 438.18 and the daily 50 ema at 440.58. Until then im riding the 8ema wave bull train to the top.
As JPOW once said “Fuck your Puts.”
DM me if youd like to stay in touch after April 2nd are i will no longer be posting daily TA or pre market posts on here…
Submitted March 22, 2022 at 12:49AM by DaddyDersch
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