2/28/22 SPY recap and anaylsis via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing

Well i have to say that today probably was the wildest, most volatile and weirdest SPY chart i have seen in a very very long time. I dont usually say manipulation as i dont believe it in 99% of the time but today was something else. There was definitely some sort of bigger power out there making this pump and dump like i have never seen before.

https://preview.redd.it/sjwwfihdnnk81.png?width=1576&format=png&auto=webp&s=0977f8e7e132c5b2a69a37d3575c77ffa92edca5

So the recap today will be brief as there wasnt much to say besides wow.

We saw futures go blood red reaching a low of 2.8% over night… pre market was able to battle back though and was able to open slight red. SPY saw a whipsaw of upward movement that was bouncy but eventually reached a intraday high of 438.2. From there we saw a massive sell off down to 433.2 (daily 8 ema) and what followed that i can not explain. From 1245 until market close we saw some of the most wildest and most volatile candles i have seen in a very long time… everytime we saw reversal or trend confirmation the next candle would take the wildest reversal i have ever seen. It would start a new trend and then hit an immediate reversal. I havent ever seen anything like this.

In all reality what we essentially saw today was a massive 2.8% sell off during futures, a recovery intraday to fill the gap that was 437.6 and then a massive sell off down to 430.7 and another rip back up to resistance at 436.7. To finish the day down 0.26% but some would argue it was a green finish… SPY/ futures managed a 3% plus turn around yet again….

Despite the PMI data that was WAY worse than expected data the markets did not seem care. It is very odd for a market that is so sensitive to bad news that it is not reactive to truly “bad” news… it seems that the market only cares about Russia/ Ukraine right now but i suspect that to change over this week…

https://preview.redd.it/2qu068fennk81.png?width=1576&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab9219320696de7fd60750433fe5aec6cf8812f6

When we look at the daily chart we see a bit of a bigger picture… Today we yet again closed below the daily 200 EMA (439.45) without retesting it, we saw a ton of resistance at the daily 8 EMA (435 at the time) before we finally broke through. We also have a green candle despite a red finish. its hard to see on the chart but there is a dotted resistance line i drew from 2/10 and todays high which i will be watching as now resistance right near 437.

Overall these charts unfortunately do not tell us a whole lot of anything. we are dead smack in the middle of the channels. Despite what should (yet again) argubaly have been an extremely red date yet again finished bullish).

Many chose to refuse to believe it but i do believe there was external forces to prop this up yet again, i can understand the sell off to 410 being ate up like crazy as that was a MASSIVE discount that hasnt happened in month. but this one i do not understand at all.

Heading into the week we have JPOW testifying wednesday/ thursday, mortgage numbers wednesday, bullard from the fed (many say he is hawkish) talking at 930a.

I wouldnt be surprised to see a test of the 200 ema tomorrow and then come wednesday we finally see the sell off.

Major supports- 435.1 –> 428.2 –> 421 –> 410

Major Resistance- 439.5 (200 ema) –> 440.48 (20 ema) –> 448.7 ( 50 ema… a very very big resistance in my book).

10% challenge-

the bad news- well today couldnt have gone any worse and i couldnt have had a worse day if i tried.

the good news- i get to restart my 10% challenge so thats fun…

Lessons of the day-

  1. if its a bad day, or a weird market its better to just stop.
  2. dont try and be smarter than the market
  3. despite how good and perfect all my support and resistance lines were today… it doesnt mean the MM arent gonna play games
  4. even if you mitigate losses they add up over time.
  5. some days cash > trading
  6. tomorrows a new day
  7. And this is my biggest lesson. do NOT trade while on dad duty

Submitted March 01, 2022 at 12:03AM by DaddyDersch
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