2/25/22 SPY analysis and weekly recap via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing

Today we saw yet, to manys disbeliefs, another overly bullish day… I have to say i did not anticipate that and 99% of us were waiting for the dip that never came. I have to say that despite a good day on the live trading channel logistically wise twas not a good day trade wise. But some days will be like that.

Just felt like we couldnt get a good flow or trend. The hardest mind fuck came from how overbought this truly is and trying to believe we were still bullish all day. We just kept breaking resistance after resistance.

Morning had inflation data and home buyer info which were all (mostly) worst than expected yet the market didnt care… The only real thing i can think of today was that apparently there was some news that Russia was going to have some “diplomatic” talks with Ukraine… and apparently market liked that because we saw a red premarket/ futures turn green based on that. After hours i heard some chatter too on CNBC that the feds were only mentioning a 25 bps rate hike instead of 50 bps which also seemed to cause a bullish day.

Of course hind sight is 20/20 but we should have just bought calls and held those all day. However, of course hindsights always 20/20. We did see yet another very very low volume day today averaging about 2m/ 15 min candle.

Spy over a two day period made a total swing of 6.3% from low to high… in TWO DAYS! THATS WILD…

Okay so here is what i am seeing and some setups for next week and some things we should keep in mind…

https://preview.redd.it/sopsv4wf12k81.png?width=1416&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c762baafe2b688c2dbb734948067f19e9cb9501

I am going to focus on the daily chart for most of the TA and next week.

We finished below the 200 ema (439.48) still which is overall still bear territory. Of course we didnt get quite there but i was really kinda expecting us to with this crazy bullish momentum we had all day… We finished about $1.75 short of the 200 ema.

Another thing i am watching on this daily also is the way that candle finished today… that actually is a hanging man candle… now it doesnt always mean anything. but that can be considered a reversal candle. Which to me truly would make sense as i just didnt see the momentum that we are used to with the type of move this made. The volume was also not there… If you look at the daily chart the volume yesterday was insane but overall the volume yesterday was pretty low still.

The 8 ema is still trending below the 200 ema which is bearish… however we did close our candle (not fully) above it which is bullish short term… 8 ema is currently at 434.7.

The other thing i am watching is the 20 ema at 440.89 which is closing in quickly on the 200 ema at 439.48. In general the 20 crossing the 200 ema is a very bearish signal.

Lastly, the 100 ema is trending near 450 which is actually the top of the red channel shown above. Actual resistance of the channel above is closer to 446-447 though.

https://preview.redd.it/bql33k3f12k81.png?width=1416&format=png&auto=webp&s=d208da1f89f8d48ad045a07c629f4c47bb22fb2f

As you can see on the 15 min chart (zoomed way out) we actually have formed quite the upward channel which we have stayed within all day (Surprisingly) I will continue to watch that channel next week to see how we trade. within it bullish, below it bearish once we finally break the lower limit.

the upper limit of the DAILY CHANNEL (aka breakout territory) is at 446/447 as i mentioned… thats only a 1.9% to 2.1% total move from close today… that is VERY well within a possibility to touch on Monday. That is my anticipation currently for what monday will bring. We could see our final green day, retest resistance and reject before we continue lower…

Overall until we close a candle somewhere above 448 i am bearish longer term (1-2 months). We despite the market seeming to forget it, can not lose sight of EVERYTHING come this march.

Feds currently are under reacting to inflation in my opinion. And they are making a grave mistake doing that. But we shall see how the market reacts come monday.

Week three of the 10% challenge update- win or loss im transparent. worst week i have had in a LONG time.

Weekly goal is 60% of my weekly $10k…

Weekly profits goal based off 10%= $5k/ week

Realistic profit goal for the week= $3000 or 30% profit

Actual weekly profits= -8%

Actual weekly profits= -$2200

Total portfolio % gains after week 3= 356%

Starting $= $7500

Current $= $26,700

Looking back and review my trades i would say 85% of my biggest losses came from pointless over night swing trades. I felt too confident in my ability to catch the trend but as we all learned that doesnt always work. and unfortunately the had a bigger loss end of day today while picking kids up, got burnt on the dip thinking it was gonna keep going… it looks and showed every sign it was going to sell off… but it just kept ripping. Discipline is learned and i learn far more losing money sometimes than winning money.

My other excuse for losses is only being able to trade power hour for the whole week besides today.

We can not look at the week and get discouraged. Every week is a new week. Every week we start over. Every week we look for our 10% gains. Next week brings a whole new opportunity.

I for one look forward to a new week and a new trend. I look forward to monday being LIVE again and trading with all of you in one place.

The last two days were tough days mentally as no matter how good something looks if the market wants it to go a certain way its going to go that way. Next week we practice patience and further hone in on our trade. We wait for our trade. I found myself today wanting to trade just to trade and thats never a good place to be. We have a nice weekend ahead and i sincerely hope everyone has a good weekend! I look forward to a refreshing weekend with the family, getting some much needed sleep and returning monday ready to go.

Submitted February 25, 2022 at 11:22PM by DaddyDersch
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