2/24/22 SPY- 1, 2, 3 Putin declares a thumb war via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing


2/24/22 SPY- 1, 2, 3 Putin declares a thumb war

Well for those of you who slept all night and are just waking up… let me be the first to tell you the Russia invaded and is officially attacking Ukraine and the stock market is bleeding like a stuffed pig…

This is really hard to analyze because holy circuit breaker this is the worse pre market at 8am I have seen in 2 years… I can see how this was a complete and utter over reaction after hours/ futures/ pre market and how this COULD recover… but lets be honest come 930am when people see this and can finally buy I think we are going to see panic selling like we having seen since 2020 covid crash.

If we truly open today -2.5% like we are at right now and are holding steady at it only gets worse… when 4am hit we saw an utterly small recovery followed by a 1% sell off.

https://preview.redd.it/n1w8qnlf7sj81.png?width=1660&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8d72c878dddbe03e4e581c8317ea1736accfbba

This isnt my usually high speed TA/ DD for the day because truthfully this is uncharted territory…. so to keep it short and simple here is a few levels to watch…

-1%= 417.7

-1.5%= 415.6

-2%= 413.5

-2.5%= 411.4

-3%= 409.3

-3.5%= 407.18

-4%= 405

-4.5%= 403

-5%= 400.8

I am not even gonna waste my time posting any positive numbers as i highly doubt we see any shade of green today… besides those who had bought puts.

Based off the chart and support and trend lines I see 407 –> 403 –> 400 are the only true support lines I can account for…

$400 is actually a level I am watching and could see this hitting today it would be a -5% day and would be the utmost bottom of the support channel we are currently in. I zoomed out and posted the chart below so you can see where my trend lines are coming from for the 3 levels above.

https://preview.redd.it/aronsg5b7sj81.png?width=1660&format=png&auto=webp&s=89ba3a7bf3f0c23e3dcb2714a6908b7523c92b18

I KNOW everyone thinks the play is to just FOMO hard af into puts at open and heck maybe it is the play… I truly dont know. This is going to be an absoluletly wild and volatile day. Hell we may even see one of those fancy dancy circuit breakers… the one thing about this is the markets did NOT price this in. Yes they knew it was possible but it was not a for sure thing based off Biden saying sanctions would work… so now market is gonna freak the fuck out.

If you YOLO into puts today just remember… dont blow your account up doing this by making the wrong call.

Postions-

I was unlucky/ lucky enough to work last night and bought 2 puts last night on /ES right before the invasion popped off… I sold them at the -2.75% low for about 15k last night….

Currently i am holding a 3/2 4150P that i plan to hold till the end of the day and sell (depending on what happens with the market today) Since it is futures and is 24/6 i may hold and just see how the after market goes…

Submitted February 24, 2022 at 02:18PM by DaddyDersch
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