2/23/22 SPY- daily double bottom? via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing

This mornings pre market was one of the greenest and stablest green days ive seen in a while. I actually was impressed by it and when i went to sleep i was fully ready to wake up after sleeping and see a very green day. But per usual we see the trend clearly is bear market and there was in the end no good news to proper us upward.

I presented two pre market scenarios and scenario 2 played out perfectly.

  1. we reject at 433.7 and “fall” out of the rising wedge. If we were to fall out of the wedge i would look for the major support test of 430.7. If we break this level i would full expect a retest of the low of the day yesterday of 425.8 (-1%). If that low breaks i then expect a test of the january low of 420.76 (-2%).
  • In this scenario if we were to break 420.75 i suspect that to signal a much bigger sell off ahead for the week down to around 400.
  • If we bounce and hold right at 420.76 we may actually form a reversal hammer candle on the daily. This would signal a V shaped bottom bounce and could signal there will be some more upside in the range of 448-450.

As you can see scenario two and part two played out perfectly. So what does this mean? Where are we going? Well imma focus today mostly on the daily chart but also touch on the 15 min trend too.

(My computer wont turn back on 🤬 so unfortunately using my phone so just gonna imgur in pics today… need to figure out why my computer isnt working tomorrow after work).

https://i.imgur.com/zQUrThq.jpeg https://i.imgur.com/wo0OzjK.jpeg

Okay so what do you see when you look at the daily? I for one see a BIG double bottom at this 421 mark. Now for those of you asking what does that mean? A double bottom is when two candles bounce off support at the same price point in this case 421. It doesnt have to be 100% perfectly the same number either.

Looking at this daily candle it did NOT finish as a hammer candle as i had mentioned could be bullish short term reversal signal. However we did finish with a massively red full body candle. To me this can mean two things that we need to look for. 1. We will have a small relief recovery and trade within todays high 433 and low of 421. Before we continue downward. 2. We could just continue a massive sell off.

The one difference that i see here between January low is the daily candle. It was a massive wic and recovery. Today was not that. It was a solid red day.

Things we need to watch over night is if we get an official retest of 420.76… writing this now after markets dipped 0.2% to below the intraday low.

I alerted to close any puts and not to hold any over night as i do believe we will bounce tomorrow. Towards the end of the day there was not nearly as much sell pressure as buy pressure the last hour. We will have to see what futures do tonight and pre market as a better guide though.

Support- 420.76 –> 419.2 –> 409 –> 405. (From 419 to 409 there will obviously be supports i just dont got solid data on that to post). -0.5%= 419.8 -1%= 417.7 -1.5%= 415.6 -2%= 413.5

Resistance- 422.8 –> 423.8 –> 425.9 –> 426.8 –> 428.4 –> 430.1 –> 430.6

+0.5%= 424 +1%= 426.2 +1.5%= 428.3 +2%= 430.4

If we look at the daily chart we also see the 20 ema has closed the gap on the 200 ema and the 50 ema has crossed below the 100 ema. All bearish signs.

We are still long term bearish now and for the forseeable future but we very well could see a pop and run to some bigger resistance near 440 to 445 and still see lower lows after.

We are now at day 4 of red. We could obviously still see a red day for a 4th one tomorrow but historically id say 4 red days usually results in a green day…. but we will see what tomorrow brings. Overall there is just so much bearish sentiment right now.

Postions- After sleeping i tried to trade power hour and it did not go well. I cant wait to be done working full time soon (hint hint 😏😏) and be able to do this full time. 2/25 422 Put -9% 2/25 424 Call -9%

I also closed my long dated puts i was holding over night.
3/11 429p- 40% 3/25 429p- 25%

I will be looking to re-enter some longer puts possibly if we do bounce here. But i do feel more comfortable at these levels playing intraday than long term.

I did Alert end of the day that it could be a good play to buy a SMALL but HIGH RISK 2/25 422C for tomorrow.

Bought it at pretty much dead bottom. So will be holding that going into tomorrow.

I for one am looking forward to next week being my last week of working as a nurse full time… hint hint… yes thats what you think it means!

Submitted February 23, 2022 at 11:25PM by DaddyDersch
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