🧠🧐TSM🧐🧠 via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing


TLDR: 🇨🇳 will reunite with 🇹🇼.

History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes. -Mark Twain

In China’s view, Taiwan is part of China's sovereign territory, and it was illegitimately lost through events that are seen as moments of national humiliation. At the end of the 19th century, the Qing Dynasty formally ceded Taiwan to Japan and Taiwan became a Japanese colony for about 50 years. At the end of World War II, the Chinese Civil War broke out. The Communists won on the mainland, and the nationalists retreated to Taiwan. So in China’s view, Taiwan’s separation is the result of a civil war that never fully ended. On that view, it is as if the U.S. were trying to get South Carolina back if we’d never retaken it in our own Civil War. In fact, former Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao used to compare the Taiwan issue to how the U.S. under Lincoln saw the Civil War.

The current “King of China” Xi Jinping, has linked the recovery of Taiwan to his high priority projects of ‘national rejuvenation’ and achievement of the ‘China dream.’ The worry is that taking Taiwan may be on a shorter-term agenda than it used to be, and that Xi may see recovering Taiwan as a legacy move, kind of like recovering Hong Kong was a legacy move for Deng Xiaoping, who was the Chinese leader in the ’80s when the deal to return Hong Kong was struck with the U.K.

The United States is the only sizable obstacle to this reunification.

When would be a good time to make a power play?

Answer: when the US is weakened by fighting internal and external conflicts.

Culture wars, economic disparity, war fatigue (sending America’s youth to die in Iraq 1, Afghanistan, Iraq 2, Syria) COVID, inflation, populism, Ukraine…

Positions: TSM $55P 3/18, 6/17 TSM $40P 1/20/23

Submitted January 28, 2022 at 04:37PM by snkbrdng
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