*Not investing or legal advice
Thesis: Musk’s bot issue is not real. TWTR does not make any reps about bots in the merger agreement and their SEC filings only mention that they try to estimate the number of bots but the actual number might be greater than 5%. Specific performance will be issued and Musk will be forced to close the deal at $54.20/share.
Updates: Einhorn / Greenlight is now long TWTR as well. At a very similar cost basis to me.
-Long 5,100 shares @ $37.81/share weighted average
-Long 55 Jun 16’23 50 Calls @ $1.72 weighted average
-Short 51 Jan 19’24 55 Calls @ $0.69 weighted average
Post 2. I am still concerned about the financing and solvency as the only thing that can end the deal. A lot of people in this thread were dismissive of the solvency concern or just factually wrong but Slate literally just published a story with this exact same concern.
Slate article on Twitter solvency: https://slate.com/technology/2022/08/elon-musk-twitter-trial-financing.html