Reminder- i FINALLY am going back to work Monday night! So those of you who tuned in for the intraday discussion today (which was a lot of fun doing that together and seeing everyone talk) those wont be happening as much now. I hope to do them one or two days a week still though. I also will still try to update daily like i have been. Just some times posts may not happen to very late into the night.
Well SPY like always wants to be the wild child of the stock market. However, even in her wildness she gives us signs and hints of where its going (thankfully).
Historically January tends to be a bearish month, however, unless you live under a rock for the last few weeks you would see we had A LOT more than usual. From increasingly out of control inflation, ole Putin stepping out and then of course daddy powell. Big oof this month, however, as people like to say never bet against the stock market. So heres what im seeing and where we are going.
Today we saw yet again a volatile day. I think i can speak for many of us that we expected the typical dip, run and then dip at the end of the day. Its friday after all… but spy lovessss to switch it up. That resistance line (the green dotted) was so u believably strong it had been tested and rejected 6 times. But one ole Biden started speaking he whispered sweet nothings to the market and boom boom we broke the major resistance trend.
Ironically our sibling NASDAQ saw their similar downward channel break too. https://i.imgur.com/lelrP8G.jpeg https://i.imgur.com/hr0Y5ol.jpeg
On NASDAQ we got the MACD curling up to sell and the RSI trending upward. https://i.imgur.com/StW61cG.jpeg
On spy we have a very similiar setup occuring too. https://i.imgur.com/PPJ4oCn.jpeg
Heres what im seeing and where we may be headed and how im playing the month of February.
So nasdaq. Im seeing a clear break of the bear channel (blue dotted). But im seeing another clearly formed bullish channel (white dotted). Im seeing a resistance line near 14.1k (using previous high from 1/4 and 1/13 a perfect intersection happens at 14.1k at the top resistance line of the white dotted channel. Im also seeing the daily 20 ema intersecting around this area too. Will definitely be keeping an eye on this.
Now with spy. We are looking at the red dotted bullish channel. Im watching a similiar trend line from 1/4 and 1/13 which intersects the top resistance line of the red dotted channel near 456.
I note that SPYs channel is more aggressive than the NASDAQ channel. However both are on very similar trajectories here.
Now one thing i will be watching is that even im this new bullish channel for spy is that we have a lot of downside still. The 30 min and 1 hour are still pretty overbought (not extremely but slightly). There is still a chance we see a major sell off sometime next week perhaps even monday. Currently support will be somewhere by time pre market moves and everything around 428-430. After such an impressive end of day run today it would be natural to expect some to be given back monday.
Heres how im playing the next few weeks… (keep in mind im going back to work full time night shift so i also wont be able to day trade as much as i could the last 2 weeks).
Im going to be watching the charts next week come monday and be looking for a small dip to go long on some calls here. I will be doing my normal style: first otm strike for whenever i finally buy in but im going to do a 14 dte. Will plan to hold for some nice profit and then roll it out depending on gains and everything provable every 7 days.
Im going to be watching for the upper resistance line test near 448-450 short term next week and long term of 456 by 2nd week of February.
I still hope to do some intraday trading but because of work im gonna be doing mostly longs holding and rolling profits unless i see a change of direction.
One thing everyone needs to watch out for is Feb 10th inflation data releasing. No more fed meetings till March so really from here we got some room to run free till the fed drops the hammer again.
Submitted January 29, 2022 at 03:04AM by DaddyDersch
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